The Guardians are "going for it" — Well, Maybe
What does the Guardians offseason indicate about Cleveland baseball?
The 2022 American League Central Division champions, and youngest team in baseball are entering late December with two key free agent signings. Those signings are Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Entering the offseason, we wrote about what flaws the Guardians must improve:
Catcher, and DH remain problem areas, and to a lesser extent center field. 1st base also bubbles up as an area for improvement.
The Guardians needed to add offense at catcher and DH/1B. Well, they definitely spent at those positions, what those spends mean are far more complex. Before diving into the contracts, an indicator of intent, lets look at positioning.
The Guardians won 92 games and are the platonic ideal of small market baseball. Jose Ramirez who signed a seven-year $141 million extension ($20.15 AAV) makes just $14 million in 2023. Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is early in arbitration. Emmanuel Clase has a team friendly deal, and Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, Oscar Gonzalez are all pre-arb. Another term being, absurdly below market.
The Guardians by almost any measure have a top five farm system and 40-man roster depth that would make an opposing general manager swoon. Yet, it is December 18th, and the Guardians are limited to a two-year deal* for Josh Bell with downside risk, and a one-year deal for a catcher who was somehow as bad or worse than Cleveland’s 2022 catching production.
This was the moment, an opportunity to tack on talent to a team with a non-existent payroll and absurd assets, while the division with messy futures in Chicago and Minnesota floundered. A grand opportunity to shift significantly up the win curve and radically increase the probability of another A.L. Central title. What did the Guardians do? Well they got better, at the margins, and embraced some risk.
The good news? The Guardians had an absurdly poor 68 wRC+ for the DH position in 2022, and Josh Bell projects for 125 wRC+. If one conceives of Bell replacing 400 Owen Miller plate appearances and 100 Josh Naylor plate appearances against left-handed pitching, this is a big upgrade. Indeed, upgrading those plate appearances was easy, low-hanging fruit.
Still the Guardians made a unique move, an all in effort where they absorbed a bucket of risk. Contracts are indicators of strategy and risk. The Guardians agreed to a two-year $33 million deal with an opt out after year one. Essentially, if Bell has a good season, the Guardians get a fair market price of $16.5 million for one year of offense, and if he struggles or gets hurt, the team holds the bag for year two. This is the second highest free agent annual average value (AAV) the team has ever signed. The upside? He rocks 2023, an all in move and decides on free agency. The downside, he struggles, and the team eats an AAV worth 16% or more of the team’s salary at a position where offense is cheap.
Josh Bell is a good player, and a good bet, but the contract looks like a win now gamble, and the downside risk is significant for a team that does not spend money. Yet, this would all make sense, if not for the complexity of Mike Zunino. A lottery ticket catcher on a team that values catching.
The Guardians signed Mike Zunino for just one year and $6 million, or alternatively, nearly 10% of the teams budget. Mike Zunino will be playing 2023 as a 32 year old, an age which for catchers is on the older side. Further Zunino is coming off thoracic outlet surgery for his non-throwing arm.
The good? Zunino is an above average framer, though not in the Hedges tier, and historically a good thrower of the baseball. However, the past two years have seen his throwing and transfer decline, whether that is related to injury or aging is unclear, though those concepts are overlapping in some sense.
Zuninio is best discussed offensively as volatile, in four of Zunino’s ten big league seasons he posted a wRC+ below 70, essentially being 30%+ below average. Of course, Zunino has posted three above average seasons as well.
Though wagering on a 32 year old matching their high end offense is more naive than rational. In the end, Zunino at his peak, with health is volatile with real offensive ceiling and good defense. Yet, Zunino is not at his peak, is not young, and is returning from injury. At this point, $6 million is what it costs for a lottery ticket at catcher, and potential bridge to Bo Naylor.
This is where it all gets a bit messy. The Guardians sign Josh Bell to a gamblers one-year* contract, a win-now move that should radically improve the team’s offensive depth. Zunino, well, this is a bit more of a lotto-ticket move that makes sense when a team is not contending or when the team has a ton of catching depth. Zunino could be awesome, but probabilistically, it is a marginal upgrade.
Are the Guardians going all in? Probably not, though the Bell deal has all in risk. Are the Guardians buying lotto tickets? Maybe, Mike Zunino is on that framework. Without more to this offseason, the Guardians have absorbed a large second year risk on Josh Bell, with a near term gamble, wagered on a 32 year old catcher coming off injury with a volatile history, and failed to consolidate assets to boost the big league club. This offseason could work but it is built on volatile wagers, and for a team in this situation, that is disappointing.