As the Guardians surprising 2022 season came to an end in the Bronx, the roster’s warts had been brought to the forefront. At the top of the list? The limitations a lack of power poses in a postseason format where strikeout rates increase and stringing together rallies becomes more difficult. Beyond the lack of power, was the teams abject mediocrity against left-handed pitchers, even junk baller Nestor Cortes on three days rest.
Both of these warts were nothing new, and one cannot forget the frequency with which Bob Costas discussed the Guardians old school style. Stated less pretentiously, the Guardians were 28th in baseball in isolated power (ISO) at .129. This article will frequently use ISO as a proxy for power. Against left-handed pitching? 27th best with a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 84.
What does it all mean? The Guardians need a right-handed power bat. Boom. Article finished. Well, probably more than that actually. One of the key principles of roster construction, especially for a team that operates like the Guardians, is finding the most significant marginal value gain opportunity.
A good example is that the cost of adding a projected five home runs at 3rd base is likely a three-four times multiplier of adding 15 home runs in center field, in terms of acquisition cost. This is a simplistic example with numerous secondary complexities but ideally crystallizing. With this in mind it is worth assessing where the largest gaps are on the roster between league median and team production on ISO, and wRC+ against LHP.
Since ISO is broader spectrum and not limited to matchups against LHP, it is important to start there.
Four gaps immediately jump out as large power outage areas: catcher, left field, center field, and designated hitter. Lets get one item out of the way, left field is not being touched. Kwan won a gold glove, was a threat on the bases, and was an elite table setter at the top of the lineup, you are going to sacrifice power in left field. An aside, this author is optimistic Kwan climbs closer to .120 ISO in 2023.
Now the three attackable areas. Catcher, center field, and DH. It is not a coincidence that catcher and center field are high impact defensive positions, the team has prioritized defense at these positions historically.
Starting with catcher a .086 ISO in 2022. Here are some options. Top prospect Bo Naylor projects for a .144 ISO, above the median in 2022, with potentially impactful power. Projections are simply that, projections but they are informative, and at catcher show a ton of room for a gain. Sean Murphy the Guardians midseason trade pursuit? Well he has a career ISO of .193, and would likely double power output at catcher and post significantly above average for the position. I am crossing off consideration of Willson Conterars as his defensive limitations seem too serious for the Guardians to pursue. Even Christian Vasquez with a meager .124 career ISO would create a large power boost.
Before looking at center field and DH as power outage centers, lets dive into the LHP splits.
Catcher, and DH remain problem areas, and to a lesser extent center field. 1st base also bubbles up as an area for improvement.
Further centering on 1B/DH a majority of the plate appearances rest with two individuals Josh Naylor and Owen Miller. Off the top Miller is limited against LHP and does not have the power to hit in either spot, he simply cannot get more than a handful of plate appearances in either role going forward. In a limited 250 plate appearance big league sample Naylor has a wRC+ of 60 against LHP, the minors data is not a lot better. At the core, Naylor has to be the leading side of the platoon, and should probably max out at approximately 450 plate appearances and limited exposure to LHP.
Jose Abreu is the optimal high-end solution, adding power, and deepening a lineup that needs it. On the secondary solution around matchups, J.D. Martinez, Trey Mancini, and Carlos Santana are strong platoon solutions.
Finally, a discussion of center field. Myles Straw was one of the worst offensive players in baseball in 2022, some of it was batted ball luck but even pricing that in, he projects as below average offensively. The defense is special, and can hide a lot of the limitations. Further, outside of Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo, two players above the Guardians spending thresholds, the free agent market is bereft of talent. There are not a lot of available solutions on the trade market either.
The best solution probably starts from within for the Guardians. The team needs to hide Straw more by playing Kwan or Brennan in center field against right handed pitching with the underlying optimism that perhaps George Valera or Nolan Jones boosting corner outfield offense, can help hide the limitations in center field.
The Guardians are rich with postseason sellout cash, a top three minor league system in all of baseball, and a number of players on absurdly below market deals. The team has to attack roster’s offensive limitations. First base/DH, catcher, and center field are where Antonetti and company have to start.