Guardians ZiPS Projections-Unders

Where does this author think ZiPS is missing high on Guardians position players?

The Cleveland Guardians offseason following the Mike Zunino signing has grown quiet but for an exciting Touki Toussaint lottery ticket, and it is time to further contemplate projections for 2023. Two weeks ago, this author discussed projections systems, specifically ZiPS, and his three projected overs. In this column, I will be taking the opposite side of the fence, three offensive unders for ZiPs projected totals.

ZiPS- Mike Zunino 18 home runs-Under!

Just what you wanted to hear, right? Some foolish author taking the under on 18 home runs for the Guardians second biggest offseason addition. Ultimately, the reason for the under expectation is anchored to a couple of items.

First, my overall positivity about Bo Naylor. Before 2022, this author asserted that too many outlets had jumped ship on Bo Naylor after his 2021 performance, and Naylor’s 2022 has only boosted the prospect hubris. Naylor’s offensive gains were massive showing the contact gains and discipline gains necessary to pair with above average power. Further, there is optimism about his framing, and his investment in developing his communication with pitchers including learning Spanish. The refinement to the level of receiver and game manager prioritized by this time is moving along nicely.

The organization is super high on Naylor, and Guardians’ president Chris Antonetti noted as much in a press conference before the playoffs.

“(Bo Naylor is) Another guy that continues to develop…in every aspect of the game. He is probably the first to tell you that the results weren’t what he may of hoped in 2021 and we’ve seen players that can go in a variety of different ways. Bo took that as a challenge to continue to put in the hard work to get better. We’ve started to see the emergence of a player that’s capable of contributing offensively, defensively, on the bases, his leadership skills behind the plate, the way he’s led a pitching staff. He’s made tremendous progress in all those areas and we are really excited about his future and ability to impact the team in so many ways, especially at that position. If you look around the game, there aren’t many catchers that are able to do what he’s able to do.”

The team started Naylor’s clock early by calling him up in late 2022, and added him to the playoff roster with less than 20 big league plate appearances. For a team so conservative, they signaled their excitement. With that in mind I expect at least 300 plate appearances for Bo Naylor in 2023, and that will slice into Zunino’’s pure amount of opportunity.

Further, I also am skeptical about catcher aging in general. Zunino is entering his age 32 season, coming of thoracic outlet surgery. The position is incredibly demanding. Zunino is not young, and the impacts of his surgery are unknown.

Progressive Field is not favorable for right-handed hitters for power. The elevated left field fence is adverse to power from the right-hand side, and has been slightly below league average park factor for right-handed hitters for home runs for the past three years.

Finally, Zunino is volatile, with wide ranges in offensive outcome. Recently Gage Will wrote about his ceiling, and why the Guardians bet on it. In a strong piece, Gage also demonstrates the radical dispersion of Zunino’s career outcomes. In this case, I am skeptical the Guardians receive the positive side of the volatility.

ZiPS- Josh Naylor 19 home runs-Under!

If any of my under’s could age very badly, it would be this one (screenshot time). Naylor is just 25 years old, hit 20 home runs in 2022, and could be on a path to a continued break out. Still, some potential playing time restrictions and batted ball trends make me skeptical of an over.

Between the addition of Josh Bell, and the 2022 emergence of Oscar Gonzalez, the Guardians have two defensively limited guys who can punish left-handed pitching. The big league reality for Naylor against left-handed pitching in 276 plate appearances has been horrific, posting an OPS of .565. His minor league splits against lefties are better, but not materially. With a deeper roster in 2023 including more established right-handed power, there is not really a reason for Naylor to play as often against LHP even though Naylor had only one home run against LHP in 2022 anyway.

Second are the physical issues. Watching Josh Naylor run the bases in 2022 can best be described as a concerning and stressful experience. Any time he decelerated, it appeared he might collapse. This under prices in some concern that Naylor is an elevated injury risk.

Third, the batted ball profile remains just too ground ball heavy. Naylor has high-end raw power, as manifested in his exit velocity ceiling, which was in the 89th percentile in 2022. However, hard ground balls are not that valuable. Naylor was at 48.9% ground balls in 2022, slightly better than his career average of 50% but not materially so. If qualified in 2022, Naylor ground ball rate would have been good for 18th highest in baseball. Simply put, it is difficult to hit home runs when nearly 50% of your batted balls are into the ground.

For all the above, give me the slight under.

ZiPS-Myles Straw 24 stolen bases-Under!

Starting with the positives. Straw’s 2022 offense appears to be unsustainably bad. his batted ball luck was poor and will likely improve to some extent in 2023, which is part of why projection systems see an offensive bounce back. Still, Straw is offensively limited by passivity and a complete dearth of power. Further, the biggest reason for the under, like those above him, is this team is just too deep for him to play as much in 2023.

Straw started 2022 in the leadoff spot, and over the course of the season racked up 596 plate appearances, on his way to 21 stolen bases. Straw’s base running and elite center field defense are enough to get him into the lineup with some frequency. However, this outfield is getting too crowded and diverse in talent for Straw to merit more than 450 plate appearances, and plate appearances influence opportunity.

One of overs in the previous piece relates to Will Brennan. This author just believes in his offensive floor. Brennan, Steven Kwan, and Will Benson are all capable of defending center field, as well as being projected to be 13-25% better offensively than Straw. Further, 22-year-old George Valera is poised to force his way into the big league outfield mix in mid-2023. This is setting aside Oscar Gonzalez soaking up a number of starts in right field.

If one locks in Kwan as everyday in left field, then Brennan, Benson, Gonzalez, Straw, and later Valera should all vie for the center field and right field plate appearances. As a result, Straw likely loses some playing time in 2023, and counting stat productivity. One counter is that the expansion of base sizes in 2023 will drive Straw over, but I am skeptical that will overcome the reduced opportunity. Take the under!