Guardians ZiPS Projections-Overs

Which Guardians appear poised to clear ZiPS projected totals?

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! (If you are into projection system outputs, cold weather, and perhaps other stuff…) This week Dan Szymborski rolled out his 2023 ZiPS Guardians projections. This follows Fangraphs’ release of updated Steamer projections systems.

Of note, ZiPS projection system is well regarded by industry folks exposed to internal projection systems and ultimately a treat for us in the public. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of the inputs and weights of the ZiPS system, this quote from Dan provides good context on a basic understanding of the output:

“It’s also important to remember that the bottom-line projection is, in layman’s terms, only a midpoint. You don’t expect every player to hit that midpoint; 10% of players are “supposed” to fail to meet their 10th percentile projection and 10% of players are supposed to pass their 90th percentile forecast. “

One of the best values of projection systems, especially ones as well calibrated as ZiPS, is that it confronts our recency bias, or the tendency to think that the most current data is a reasonable expectation. This is most helpful with young players where our instinct may be to say that 2022 was the floor of growth for Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, or Oscar Gonzalez. A more comprehensive look at the cumulative data results in a more conservative projection. This can occasionally make a projection slow to react to “breakout”, where the fan may be more likely to err on an outlier or career season as a “breakout”.

Still one of the more fun exercises on a yearly basis is to make over/under wagers against projections systems and test ones acumen to outperform a model. With that in mind, this column analyzes the three instances where I take the over on a ZiPS projections.

Steven Kwan-ZiPS Seven Home Runs and .103 IS0

Mike Hattery- Over!

Perhaps, it is Steven Kwan-centric hubris or recency bias, but this author expects a substantive over on these totals in 2023. In over 638 PAs during 2022, Steven Kwan had six home runs and an ISO of .10. Therefore, the home run and ISO percentage projections from ZiPS would not exactly require an enormous leap in these categories from Kwan. However, even if the total were ten home runs, I would take the over. Furthermore, if Kwan were getting Aaron Judge baseballs, I might take the over on 15.

One key reason for taking the over is that players with Kwan’s elite barrel control, feel for contact, and discipline can often find opportunities to leverage counts and situations to add power. Cleveland has seen success with Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor, and, most notably, Jose Ramirez adding power to contact heavy profiles due to attacking the pull side in certain counts. Pull side is important because with limited exit velocity like Kwan’s, it is the only place to generate power. This is displayed in Kwan’s 2022 ISO, where his ISO to pull field was .273 and below .060. to all other fields.

Then, we have Kwan’s second half spike, where he posted five of his six home runs and posted an ISO of .123.

Kwan’s pull spike occurred with a tight relationship to ISO, particularly in the last 30 games. Kwan has seen success when he takes advantaged counts to attack the fastball to pull field, and it is recognized by the Guardians organization. Here’s Guardians hitting coach Chris Valaika this summer in an interview with Fangraphs:

“Seeing him in-person [Kwan], how he can navigate an at-bat and how calm he is in the box… and while he doesn’t have the highest exit velocity, he’s got enough to hit it over the wall. The more settled in he gets to the big leagues, the more power I think we’re going to see from him.”

With a few adjustments and an increasingly comfortable Kwan, a bit more fly balls to pull field should have Kwan cross the 10 home run threshold without injuring his overall approach.

Will Brennan- ZiPS OPS+ of 91

Mike Hattery- Over!

For context, OPS+ is OPS on a scale where 100 is average below 100 is x% below average and above 100 is x% above average. Additionally, OPS+ folds in some important adjustments for park and other considerations. With this in mind, Will Brennan is projected to be essentially 9% below league average offense on the OPS+ scale. His projections form ZiPS also include a middling .315 OBP and .115 ISO. It is worth noting that Brennan is a divergent player for projection systems, as Steamer projects him with a .334 OBP and a .139 ISO.

Largely, I think the biggest gap which inputs into my skepticism about ZiPS OPS+ projection is that Brennan’s skills indicate a high OBP floor for me. While not in the unicorn category in terms of both low-strikeout rates and high walk rates for minimal power like Kwan, Brennan is not far behind. Further, where we have limited minor league batted ball data, Brennan ran high BABIP’s throughout his minor league career. Normally, this represents a decent proxy for contact quality and athleticism. BABIP and contact profile is particularly magnified for Brennan because he is going to put a ton of balls in play. If he posts 500 plate appearances, he will likely be in the top ten in terms of lowest strikeout rate.

In terms of contact quality, Brennan had some positive indicators. His top-end exit velocity was 46th percentile, which means it will not be a dramatic limiter. Additionally, Brennan has a long history of 20%+ line drives, which further serves to boost batted ball outcomes.

Simply put, it is rare to have this level of contact frequency, average to above average speed, decent contact authority and dispersion along with posting below average production. With that in mind, hit the over on an OPS+ of 91.

ZiPS-Jose Ramirez 30 home runs

Mike Hattery-Over!

In 2022, Jose Ramirez had 29 home runs, 19 of which were in the first half of the season. Essentially, this is a health bet on Ramirez bouncing back from a thumb injury. Ramirez was simply not the same player following a thumb injury in mid-June, which resulted in an offseason surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament. Evidenced below as a show of ISO, the power disappeared for Ramirez in mid-June:

This aligns with any Guardians fans visual experience, as they watched Ramirez wince from the right hand release of his bat on inside pitches that he used to yank with authority. Of course, aging is not a kind business and the body rarely improves. Yet, Ramirez should still clear 30 home runs at the age of 31 and entering spring training fully healthy. Over!