A Cleveland Guardians Trade Experience

A fun look at some players the Guardians could, should, or shouldn't trade for...

It’s 7:00 in the morning, 33 hours away from the trade deadline, and all is quiet on the Western Front, or in this case, Twitter. Jon Morosi hasn’t fired off a tweet in 11 hours, a redundant “The #SFGiants are in a buy-and-sell mode” that we’ve become familiar with. Jon Heyman hasn’t posted in six hours, noting from an article he wrote that “…the Yankees aren’t in the lead for Soto,” after posting the same article nine hours ago saying “Where Yankees stand on Juan Soto.” Ken Rosenthal hasn’t posted in eight hours, linking his latest article in which he sweeps between the major markets involved in the Soto sweepstakes.

I could continue this process, but the message remains clear: the trade avalanche hasn’t begun yet, and its driving the national writers insane.

So as I sit here, 33 or so hours before the trade deadline pondering what your Cleveland Guardians are going to do, I’ve decided it would be an interesting way to try and get out my first piece in over a year. With deals likely to begin cascading down the baseball mountain any minute now, I’m going to try and get out a sort of Guardians trade primer before that happens. If a trade happens that includes the Guardians, or if a trade happens that includes a player that in in this piece, so be it.

As I begin this opus, let’s take a quick look at three of the reasons the Guardians may make a deal heading into the deadline.

1. The Guardians think they can win now, and will make a deal for any available player if the price is right, including rentals.

2. The Guardians think that they can open their window a lot faster than waiting for the barrage of 21-year old prospects, by dealing for a group of controlled players, re-signability is welcome, but not needed.

3. The Guardians need to consolidate their 40-man roster because of the massive prospect logjam in Akron and Columbus.

So as I weave through a bunch of players in this random mess of thought, keep these three points in your head. Also keep in mind that every deadline has their skew points of worth for every general manager in baseball. The market is different every year because of a variety of situations. Take, for instance, Jerry Dipoto, who recently traded for Luis Castillo. Castillo, no doubt, is a top-of-the-rotation guy, with a year-and-a-half control. The Mariners recently traded two top 100 prospects for Castillo, in a four-prospect haul. To some, this is another one of those wooly and wild Dipoto trades for a guy without a lot of control, which has put a major dent on their farm system. To others, this gives the Mariners a chance at the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Is this trade a tone-setter? Perhaps that’s why the weekend saw a screeching halt to any deals. But it does give us one piece of information to remember regarding a trade, you just never know how a team values their own players, let alone another teams players.

I’m also excessively curious every year with regards to how well the Guardians front office can control the roster given to Terry Francona. Chris Antonetti and Francona are good friends, as this has been documented many times. Since Francona’s joined the team, I’ve always been interested in this friendship, and how the front office/coaching staff fit together. Does Francona get the final call on the roster? Does Antonetti? I would love to sit in on the discussions on the players involved every trade deadline, because as much as they are buds, I can’t imagine the metrics-minded front office of the Guardians and the “old school” bravado of Tito Francona always see eye-to-eye. Ponder that piece of the puzzle with any of the Guardians’ moves as well.

So the race is on.

A Current Need…

Josh Bell is the type of player that has Cleveland Guardians written all over him. With Owen Miller and Josh Naylor battling injuries, Bell could come right in and fix a fairly desperate need. With the rumors of Franmil Reyes getting traded, there’s a fit at DH as well. Bell fits the bill for the Guardians with regards to contact, with a .82 BB/K rate, is having a career year and toting a 142 wRC+, and is currently slashing at .302/.385/.493. Bell is a free agent at the end of the year, so if the Guardians deal for Bell, they are clearly throwing their hat into the ring this season. The Nationals have a really bad baseball team, so a Bell return would be interesting. I’ll get into that more specifically with a different player, but I don’t think Bell would cost them a big pick. I could see a package of 20-year olds that include maybe Petey Halpin, Angel Martinez, and/or Carson Tucker getting the job done, so the deal would look something like this.

Guardians Get

1B/DH-Josh Bell

Nationals Get

2B/SS-Angel Martinez

CF/OF-Petey Halpin

With me not having a good read on this, it may take all three top 20 prospects by adding Tucker, or maybe instead of one of the three, you throw in a Franmil Reyes for the current club, or a Tyler Freeman. This helps the Guardians 40-man a bit. I don’t see the Nationals wanting to take on any salary in a Bell move though, so Reyes would be doubtful. If the Nationals want more, I would imagine the Guardians will be out of the Bell market. And the Nationals most definitely want more. According to every source, the asking price is high, so even if the Guardians are in play for Bell, they’ll likely get outbid.

A Better Owen Miller/Ernie Clement

Tito Francona love guys that remind him of…well…him! I get the impression that this year’s version of Tito is Ernie Clement, although Owen Miller likely fits that bill as well. In the Guardians clubhouse Miller is a nice flex player that can play any infield position in a pinch. Clement is Miller-lite. Adding a player like the Reds’ Brandon Drury would immediately give the Guardians a better version of both, and most definitely give the Guardians a player “Tito can trust.” If I’m to be fair, Brandon Drury reminds me a bit of Mike Aviles, if Mike Aviles could hit 20 home runs. Drury is a solid defender at all of the infield positions. The Reds have utilized him at all four, so he most definitely feels like he could fill the role of Miller. What I like about this is Drury could take Miller’s spot, bumping Miller to the Clement spot. While I don’t like this for Miller, this takes away one of Tito’s roster flaws this year by giving him another player that he’ll love. I can’t imagine Drury is going to cost a ton, and this reminds me a bit of the Mark DeRosa trade the Guardians made many moons ago. The Guardians sent DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jess Todd, and I think that’s the type of package the Reds would want.

Guardians Get

IF Brandon Drury

Reds Get

SP Peyton Battenfield

SP Tanner Burns

Now, like Bell, I can’t get a read on this. The Reds will want more, but when you sign a guy like Drury, you can’t expect a massive return. Chernoff and Antonetti will likely walk away from a deal like this if it’s for something more. I know EHC’s Gage Will will hate seeing Bettenfield’s name on this list, but if you’re going for it this year, it’s an easy price to pay.

The Elephant In the Room…

While I started with a couple of minor moves, let’s take a look at a move that I 100% believe the Guardians are at the center of, and that’s Oakland catcher Sean Murphy. Let’s just get this out of the way. The minute my father sees Sean Murphy, he’ll look at his .238 average and guffaw. I’ve seen the average and the .737 OPS thrown around considerably over the past few days. But Sean Murphy is at worst a slightly-above-average offensive player. If I stopped there, imagine how much our offense improves if that is added to our lineup? Now I say that with a grain of salt, because Murphy has the ability to be a really good offensive player. Murphy hits the ball hard, and his 105 balls hit 95+ would be third on the team, behind Amed Rosario and Jose Ramirez. He’s currently tenth in the league in doubles, has 12 dingers, has a 112 wRC+ (Hedges-51/Maile 69), and has offensive upside. He’s a really good offensive player. What’s not been mentioned is his defense. He’s a top five framer in the league, and while computer umps are on the horizon, I’ll believe it when I see it. He’s tied for fifth in the league, having thrown out 13 would be base stealers, at a 32% clip. And there’s one thing to keep in mind here that needs stated, the Guardians emphasize defense at the catcher position because it helps raise their pitcher’s worth. At EHC, we talk a lot about market inefficiency, and while I wouldn’t say “catcher” is one of them, I would say that the Guardians trio of Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, and Austin Hedges has given a boost to the Cleveland rotation over the years. They won’t make a move for a catcher if they don’t think that catcher will mesh with their rotation. Murphy will, he’s that good. Having a coach behind the plate is a big deal, and Murphy is that coach, and with 3 1/2 years of control, is a worthwhile acquisition for the Guardians this year, and beyond. But Murphy is going to cost a ton.

Guardians Get

C Sean Murphy

A’s Get

OF George Valera

P Gavin Williams

IF Tyler Freeman

1B Jhonkensy Noel

I’m sure that idiotic trade simulator is going to slaughter me on this one, with my guess being I’d have to take off one of Valera/Williams, but that’s doesn’t bear out in this market. It will be a big deal if it happens, and if we get him for less than this, we’ve won the deal on paper.

Even looking at the proposed deal above, I don’t think it’s enough, but I already see the Valera fans screaming at the ridiculousness of the trade because Valera is involved. He’s an amazing prospect, but in the right circumstances, I think Antonetti sees those values that go beyond what we pay attention to as fans. In Murphy, you get one of the best catchers in the league, who can make a good rotation better. Offense is icing on the cake, and Murphy is more Yan Gomes at the plate, but better defensively. I think the A’s are going to move him, if not now, then this winter. They have two outstanding catching prospects, and find themselves in the same position the San Diego Padres were in when they traded Sandy Alomar Jr. to Cleveland because Benito Santiago was already there. Shea Langaliers is 24 years old, and is ready to make a splash.

Now, I know Bo Naylor is out there, and we all love Bo Naylor, but there are four factors to consider with Naylor.

1. Naylor is a prospect. Nothing translates to the bigs until it does. In other words, raking in Double and Triple A isn’t a given in the bigs, especially at catcher.

2. Murphy would be a fantastic leader-by-example for Naylor. I know we talk about “regular at bats,” but I don’t think Murphy is an impediment to finding at bats for both players. What are regular at bats for a catcher anyways? Murphy played in 119 games in 2021, the most in his career. He’s currently at 93, with less than 60 games left to play. You can find at bats, especially if you use that DH position as a flex.

3. Murphy, with 3 1/2 years left, can become a trade candidate if Naylor is as good as advertised. A full season in Cleveland for Murphy could still make him a valuable commodity in 18 months. No, the package won’t be as big (unless they deal with Dipoto), but they’ll get a nice return should they choose to.

4. You NEED TWO GOOD CATCHERS!

My take on Sean Murphy? He’s what you’d get if you blended Gomes, Perez, and Hedges into one catcher.

I’ll leave it there.

Since I Mentioned Murphy…

…what about Willson Contreras? Here’s the rental version of Murphy, who’s an average defender, and has always been considered an “offensive first” catcher. Now, most really value this option because the Guardians’ catchers have been so damn bad, but I just don’t think the Guardians have Contreras at the top of their list if he’s going to coast a ton. What’s interesting to me is what Jeff Passan had to say about Contreras. According to Passan, “Multiple teams, sources said, worry about Contreras -- who is not known for his game-calling acumen -- meshing with a new pitching staff on the fly.” In my opinion, this excludes the Guardians, especially this year, unless the cost crashes down. The problem, and this includes a potential Murphy deal, is that the Astros need a catcher too. My guess is they are dragging their feet but keeping the cost high so the Guardians, who are risk averse, stay away from the sand box. But I don’t see the Guardians dealing for Contreras if this is a real knock.

So, take this for what it’s worth.

The Guardians Get:

C Willson Contreras

The Cubs Get:

C Bryan Lavastida

CF Isaiah Greene

There’s no way the Cubs do this deal. Honestly, I don’t know that I’d want to do this deal. This isn’t to dog on Contreras, and in key ways, he would help this club, but for a rental, I think he’d make the rotation…and bullpen…worse…especially considering how upset he was about leaving Chicago. Just not a fan.

I Hate Bullpens, Unless…

…you go get David Bednar. I know, I know, “Jim, the Guardians bullpen is good, and they have that crazy maniac Karinchak back, so it’s even better. But here’s the thing, I can’t get 2016 out of my head. In Emmanuel Clase, they have as close as Andrew Miller as they’re going to get. Now, there is zero reason the Pirates should deal Bednar, as he has 4 1/2 years of control, and has been electric for the Buccos. The Pirates have said they aren’t trading Bednar, but he’s still popping up, and we know the Pirates and Guardians have made some fun trades in the past. But, the Pirates will be asking a king’s ransom for Bednar, and they should. Miller cost the Guardians Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield, two top five prospects in the Guardians system. Now, Bednar isn’t Miller, but to pry a guy with Bednar’s arsenal. He has a four seamer that averages 96.5, a 76 MPH curveball with a 40% whiff rate, and a splitter that’s in the middle. His four-seam and splitter have a whiff rate of 33%. He just makes bats miss. His walk rate is under three. His K rate is over 12. His FIP/xFIP is 2.50/2.85. He’s everything a guy who hates bullpens wants. So what would I give up for Bednar?

A lot.

The Guardians get:

RP David Bednar

The Pirates get:

SP Daniel Espino

OF Nolan Jones

IF Gabriel Arias

I don’t see Bednar getting dealt. I also think there needs to be another prospect in THAT deal I proposed, even with Espino added. But with this current rotation, you give me Clase/Bednar/Stephan/Karinchak/De Los Santos/Hentges/Morgan/Gose, I’m all in. Did I forget anybody?

So NOBODY THINKS WE CAN DEAL WITHIN THE DIVISION…

I think the Tigers are about to sell everyone, and if we’re talking about the pipe dream of Bednar, let’s talk about the reality of Andrew Chafin. Not only does he look like Wyatt Earp or the guy most likely to be battling you for the next Po’Boy at Seti’s, but the Kettering, OH native has turned into a really good reliever. 11 K’s per nine, check. Less than 3 BB per nine, check. He has a 2.21/3.15 FIP/xFIP to go with that 2.53 ERA, and while he’s not a velocity guy, he’s the veteran that’s figured out how to pitch. Nobody exudes being a relief pitcher more than Chafin. He has his own Youtube channel. He lives in that RV during the season…at a campsite…south of Detroit. He’s eccentric, and from what I’ve gathered, great for a clubhouse. Honestly, I’d love to see this guy interact with Francona. But the logistics are tough. He’s signed to a two year deal, with an opt out clause after this season, which he will most definitely utilize. So, you’re getting a rental, albeit one you could re-sign. I can’t imagine Chafin is going to cost a ton, but again, not sure what the market will bear out.

Guardians Get:

RP Andrew Chafin

Tigers Get:

OF Oscar Gonzalez

The thought of getting a lefty to put out there in a fun tandem with Stephan is enough for me to make a deal. I would add a lottery ticket to this deal, if needed, and I like Gonzalez, but I think this team can really do some damage with a starter and a reliever, so a rental here would be fine. I’d put Palacios there in place of Gonzalez…if that suits your fancy.

Here’s One More Reliever For You…

Much like Chafin, Anthony Bass has been toiling in the bigs for a long time, although he isn’t quite as eccentric. He strikes out enough…nine per nine, and walks almost exactly two per nine. The efficiency is clear, and Bass has a club option for 2023. There is a lot of spotlight on the Marlins pen right now, with most of it focused on Tanner Scott and Steven Okert. Bass has bumped up his slider usage, and it has really altered his career this season. How much? From 2017 through 2022, the slider usage by year: 17.1%, 28.7%, 33.2%, 39%, 49.9%, 56.8%. His whiff rate with the slider has always been right around 50%, and now he’s been pretty unstoppable. I actually think Bass is more likely to turn up in a package deal with another player I’m about to talk about…but let’s take a quick look at a potential deal for Bass by himself. He has a year and a half of control, but heading to his age 35 year, so the deal will look familiar, I’ll just use the other name.

The Guardians Get:

RP Anthony Bass

The Marlins Get:

OF Richie Palacios

Include Oscar Gonzalez if it’s your preference. It’s a high cost for a reliever, but if you think you can really improve your bullpen, and perhaps get rid of some riffraff in the process, this is a deal you make, especially if you buy into some of the other guys coming up. Include a lottery ticket there as well.

The Difference Maker in the Rotation…

Pablo Lopez has been a topic of discussion in the EHC home offices for a couple of months now, as Lopez has entered the heart and mind of our own Kevin Scheid. If you want to make the “Ubaldo trade,” this is one of maybe two guys that you take a look at. Now Jimenez was a far superior starter when Cleveland traded for him, but today’s market isn’t quite the same, and it’s likely that Lopez is the top starter on the market. Like Ubaldo, Lopez isn’t going to strike out 15 a game, but he’s resting comfortably at nine per, and his walk rate has never exceeded 2.83. His career FIP/xFIP is 3.75/3.78, and he continues to get better every year. He has a true five-pitch arsenal, and he mixes a four-seamer and a change-up like magic, but he also has a cutter, sinker, and a curveball with a 55% whiff rate, that he really holds onto (5.9% usage). He knows how to pitch, and he’s controllable for 2 1/2 more years. I just can’t gauge that Castillo deal, because Castillo is the better starter in many ways, but has one less year of control. The Marlins aren’t far away from contending, and are loaded with top pitching at every level. They need major league or major league ready bats, and the Guardians have that, but would they pay the price?

One more thing. The Marlins would 100% want Stephen Kwan in this deal, and as much as I’d consider it, I just don’t see it happening. That would be the non-starter, and my guess, is the end of even pondering this deal. So keeping in mind they want immediate offense, or close to it.

The Guardians Get:

SP Pablo Lopez

The Marlins Get:

C Bo Naylor

OF George Valera

OF Will Brennan

I’m conflicted about this, but I think this is the type of deal it would take. You would have to probably throw in another lottery ticket in there as well, because four players seems to be the key to all this. You could throw Bass in there on the Guardians side if you want, and I think probably keep the deal the same, or maybe add another player in the mix, but based on market, this is where I see it going. I tried hard to keep Naylor out of this, but he just seems to be a fit. I know, you’ve seen Valera come up twice. I LOVE THE KID, but that’s the price you pay for an ace in hand.

You Remember When I Mentioned Dealing Within The Division?

I am somewhat infatuated with Tarik Skubal, who has 4 1/2 years left before free agency. Having watched him a bit in Erie, where he averaged a paltry 17 1/2 strikeouts a game in his very brief tenure on the North Coast. But this is a kid with a massive arsenal, and who is very quickly learning how to harness it. In his three years in the bigs, his four-seam percentage has dropped from 58.9, to 42.8, to 26.7 this year. He’s increased his slider usage from 15.7, to 22.8, to 31.2. He started throwing a sinker last year, and that moved from 12.9 to 21.1. He also throws a changeup and a curveball. But he’s absolutely electric, and I 100% think the Tigers would trade him, but phew, the cost would be through the roof. To get him, you have to go big or go home, so once again, my heart is about to take a prospect hit.

The Guardians Get:

SP Tarik Skubal

The Tigers Get:

OF George Valera

SP Gavin Williams

IF Jose Tena

SP Peyton Battenfield

The value on this is a hard one, and I think Tena and Battenfield are low on the totem, so they may have to bump that up. Maybe instead of Tena you include Freeman or Arias, but it’s so hard to gauge a starter with 4 1/2 years of control, with an arsenal that has included seven pitches, with a pitcher that is clearly honing his arsenal. He can touch the upper 90s, and pitchers like this are so hard to come by. Seeing Skubal next to Bieber would offset the several years of pain we COULD feel of watching Valera and Williams against us. I don’t think the Tigers deal Skubal, as their asking price will be astronomical, and no, as astronomical as this looks, I don’t think it’s enough.

The Dream…

We all want Juan Soto, don’t we? Would you leave it all on the table for two and a half years of a top ten player in baseball? Would you be enticed to watch Soto and Jose Ramirez carve up the American League for two years? Would you be willing to part with the price?

The Guardians Get:

OF Juan Soto

The Nationals Get:

OF Stephen Kwan

OF George Valera

SP Daniel Espino

C Bo Naylor

OF Richie Palacios

Gosh, I don’t even know if that gets it done, if we’re to be honest, so I guess that shows you where the Guardians stand on Soto. If the Guardians could get Soto for any price that doesn’t include Kwan, I think I’d do it.

In the end, I don’t know what the Guardians are set to do. It seems as thought the Cubs are busy allaying their buddies the Yankees, and the rest of the big boys are all lining up to sign everyone. Will the Guardians steal some thunder? Who knows, but it should be a fun watch regardless.

It’s 1:00 in the afternoon, 27 hours away from the deadline, and what’s happened since I’ve started? The Cubs traded Scott Effross to the Yankees.

Things are about to get crazy…