The Cleveland Guardians Versus Shane McClanahan
What are the keys to success against the Rays Shane McClanahan?
On the surface, everything about Shane McClanahan sparkles. After all, McClanahan is a number one starter for a playoff team, who posted a 2.54 ERA. At the end of the first half, McClanahan had a dominating 1.71 ERA, 3.3 fWAR, and was at the front of the pack among Cy Young Award contenders with Justin Verlander, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease. In the second half, however, McClanahan was somewhere around average with an ERA of 4.20 and similarly a FIP of of 4.19.
Before diving any deeper, one of the big questions about this matchup is which McClanahan are the Guardians going to draw? And second, what is the difference between McClanahan in the first half and second half? Was it the neck injury?
To understand a pitcher, a good place to start is usage. For McClanahan, that is depicted below:
First, it is worth noting that McClanahan has a fairly distributed four-pitch mix, with a plurality being fastballs at roughly 35% for the season but oscillating between 30-45% depending on opponent. The second biggest pitch for McClanahan is the changeup, a devastating offering which has a wOBA against of just .202.
Indeed, against right-handed hitters the changeup is an essential pitch which McClanahan will use almost 30% of the time. Below is a great example of how nasty the changeup can be against right-handed hitters:
Beyond the two pitches that are most essential to McClanahan’s arsenal against a right-handed heavy lineup, it is important to understand the velocity of the offerings for context.
The fastball is a penetrating 97, which can reach 100. When considering the energy involved in a playoff outing, the Guardians may see some smoke that looks a lot like this:
Just between the fastball-changeup combo, it is easy to see how McClanahan can be a dominant force. Let alone an analysis of his curveball/slider offerings with the curveball being a plus offering.
Still, explaining McClanahan’s late 2022 foibles is difficult but looks somehow linked to the slider. The slider is McClanahan’s weakest pitch, and like the fastball, it has been hit hardest since the beginning of August. Interestingly, the velocity on both pitches have been surging upwards of late, so it does not appear velocity related. Having said that, perhaps the slider not having decreasing velocity distinction from the fastball is a contributing factor.
Trying to figure out the collapse of the slider value is not easy, but we have seen a decrease in both spin and vertical movement over the past few months. This pattern has aligned with a continually elevating release point:
Whether release point is related to the recent fastball-slider struggles is unclear, but the stability (lack thereof) of McClanahan’s release point is worth monitoring.
The Guardians Struggles Against Left-handed Pitching (LHP)
First, the bad news: The Guardians were a bottom-five lineup against LHP in 2022, with a wRC+ of just 84. if adjusted to the post Franmil Reyes world, it pops up to a more respectable 20th best, with a wRC+ of 96. However, fundamentally, the Guardians have struggled against LHP.
What Guardians Are Key Matchups?
Based on usage patterns, the best approach is probably to look at three buckets: right-handed hitters who can punish changeups; left-handed hitters who can hit same-side curveballs, and generally, hitters who can handle top-end velocity.
On the right-handed hitter versus changeup side; Oscar Gonzalez and Amed Rosario are two of the Guardians with significantly above average production on changeups. Ideally, Rosario and Gonzalez look for an early get-me-over changeup, or a changeup in an advantage count to drive.
In terms of left-handed hitters with success against curveballs? Well there is not a ton of success, and one should expect a heavier dose than usual. Perhaps the only hitter well situated against same-side hangers is Steven Kwan, who will be looking set the table all night long. I would expect a curveball usage spike.
As for fastballs, look for Jose Ramirez or Amed Rosario to jump a a center cut fastball.
Finally, as for the Guardians base running aggression, McClanahan as a lefty is not an ideal matchup. He is decent at holding runners, and has allowed just 13 steals over his two big league seasons.
McClanahan in broad strokes is a tough matchup for this team. The Guardians have struggled against LHP, and certain secondary offerings. However, in recency, the Guardians with different talent have been better against LHP, and McClanahan has struggled with fastball-slider command. Perhaps, there is a reason they simply play the games.
Was just thinking about when you used to post these for the postseason and then got the email with this. Great stuff.