Josh Naylor Found Another Gear
The Guardians first baseman is lighting up opposing pitcher.
The Guardians are hot right now. Jose Ramirez has been pedestrian. Not a combination you might have expected to read about three weeks ago. It has been the month of Josh Naylor.
Naylor has been more than good, more than great. He has been otherworldly at the plate. Take whatever your metric of preference may be and evaluate the Guardians first baseman, it is difficult to find an area that is lacking. He is hitting for average and power with fewer strikeouts and more walks.
Some trends that began establishing themselves in 2023 are appearing more concrete through Josh Naylor’s first 89 plate appearances of 2024. Of these trends, the most notable might be that he is avoiding spiking as much hard contact into the dirt. Ground balls are bad, lifted contact is good. This holds especially true when you are strong as an ox and can flirt with 110 mile per hour exit velocities.
If one were to lay out Josh Naylor’s seasons in succession, it would be true that his ground ball rate has decreased relative to the previous campaign in every season. It would appear to be a conscious effort to stop wasting his hard contact on batted balls that have little extra base hit potential. It is no coincidence then, that his overall batted ball efficiency in terms of weighted runs created plus has improved drastically. Instead of approximately 30 percent of his hits being of the extra base hit variety, he now resides in the 40 percent range. But there is a deeper level than launch angle that is revelatory in the true why behind the breakout of Josh Naylor.
Naylor was good in 2023. Naylor has been far in excess of that in 2024. There is a large distinction there that is even relevant given the small sample size that the first few weeks of a season permits. While he is hitting fewer ground balls as has been his next year norm, Naylor is seeing things more clearly than ever. This has translated into an out of zone swing rate of 30.6 percent, which is 13 percent better than his career mark of 35.3 percent. That specific chase rate mark might fall short of being spectacular compared to the average big leaguer, but it is much improved. You cannot change the fabric of Naylor’s aggression, only try to improve upon it and harness it.
It is important to remember that Josh Naylor is a bit of a unicorn in that he can achieve high end exit velocities without as much swing and miss frequency. His aggression leads to some swing and miss, of course, but the rate at which he can make punishing contact is slightly different than one could reasonably expect. So, the requisite barrel control needed to have that characteristic can lead to some unintended results on pitches out of the zone — meaning, contact with pitches out of the zone.
Less chase means less undesirable contact. In 2024, Naylor has improved exit velocities predominantly through chasing pitches out of the zone less frequently. The combination of lifting the ball more and hitting the ball harder is his golden ticket. It is reasonable to expect him to cool off, but the ceiling is lifted when Naylor is dancing along these lines of good swing decisions and cutting ground balls.
The results are clear to anyone with eyes watching the games. He is a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the Guardians lineup, and provided that he can continue to demonstrate the discipline to not chase, that should continue. At the very least, the improved plate discipline has buoyed a Guardians lineup that is sure to get more production from Jose Ramirez in coming weeks. His level of elite hitting production has already made a discernible impact on the fate of the Guardians 2024 season.