José Abreu is a Perfect Fit in Cleveland
It is time for the Guardians to add an impact right-handed bat.
The Guardians are poised to transition from little engine that could to a Shinkansen bullet train. Perhaps not that stark. Still with the cupboard full in a deep system, the profits from multiple rounds of postseason home games, and a handful of impact players on below market deals, the Guardians are situated for attack mode.
A few days ago, this author outlined that from an offensive perspective, the Guardians had two key flaws: 1) a lack of power and 2) a lineup with struggles against left-handed pitching. Further, winnowing the issues, the Guardians received below median production from 1st base and DH in terms of both isolated power (ISO) and against left-handed pitching. One strong solution? Well José Abreu.
Two of the cheapest positions to buy offense on the open market are 1st base and DH because they are inherently offense first positions, where there is a significantly higher density of above-average offense.
Accepting the Guardians limitations, how does José Abreu fit? Abreu has a career wRC+ (a tool for measuring run creation against league average) of 133, 33% above league average for his career. Abreu brings a career ISO of .215, about .065 above the Guardians 1B production in 2022, and nearly .100 higher than DH ISO in 2022. Now, it is important to note that Abreu had a career worst .141 ISO in 2022 but the predictive quality of that data point will be discussed in a bit.
For his career, Abreu has murdered left-handed pitching to the tune of a .925 OPS. Over the past five season, Abreu is 9th best in Major League Baseball against left handed pitching with a wRC+ of 154.
One last appealing measure? While Abreu brings power, he does not come with a burdensome strikeout rate. For his career Abreu is at 19.8%, better than league average at putting the ball in play, including a career best 16.2% in 2022.
Is 2022 power decline real?
It is good to start with some secondary indicators. First, hard hit rate:
No issues with hard hit rate, showing near career highs over the past three years. Abreu’s contact quality was generally fantastic in 2022. 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, 92nd percentile in xSLG, and 96th percentile in xwOBA.
Some ISO decline seems like noise be it ball park impacts, ball impacts — league-wide ISO was down 9 percent from 2021, and a downtick in pull percentage. Of course, for a right-handed bat, Progressive field is a theft of home runs because of the left field wall.
The reality is performance is unpredictable, Abreu will be 36 years old in 2023, and predicting aging curves for individual players is difficult. There is real risk that Abreu if he has not started his decline, will do so in the next two years. However, his baseline of offense has room for some decline.
What is the cost?
Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens has Abreu projected for a contract of two years and $36 million, or $18 million annual average value. Predicting contracts is tough but this is a good marking point plus or minus 15%. This is a number the Guardians can easily afford, especially since it is short term in nature and does not pose a risk of impacting flexibility beyond 2024.
It’s Time
The Guardians have a core of star power ready for a run in Ramirez, Gimenez, Bieber, McKenzie, and to some extent Steven Kwan. Now, is the time to add, to become credible contenders. Abreu brings credibility for an ownership group which infrequently brings in big names, even if his MVP Award was an embarrassing theft from Jose Ramirez. Abreu’s strengths, power and punishing left-handed pitching are the Guardians greatest weaknesses. Finally, Abreu brings more leadership to the youngest team in baseball. For the Guardians, it is tough to imagine a better fit, with more limited risk than José Abreu.
Fucking astros
Short and sweet. I agree: Abreu is a great fit