Hunter Gaddis Was Overlooked
Hunter Gaddis’ intriguing 2021 campaign went well beyond his earned run average.
A quick glance at Hunter Gaddis’ 2021 statistics might make you do a double take. Wait, you’re telling me that guy is worth paying attention to? The pitcher that featured a 4.16 earned run average (ERA) and a 5.04 fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark over 97-plus high-A innings? At 23, he was not even notably young for that level!
Hunter Gaddis’ 2021 campaign did not check off many boxes at face value, so any skepticism is certainly understandable. That ERA mark was ballooned by a 60 percent strand rate, while the typical strand rate is around 72 to 73 percent. A strand rate higher than that 72 to 73 percent would arguably be expected for a guy who struck out 11.74 hitters per nine innings as Gaddis did. If we were to be a bit generous and apply a deserved 75 percent strand rate, that might indicate his deserved earned run average would have been about 20 percent lower to the tune of about 0.8 runs resulting in a 3.33 ERA normalized to strand rate.
Now, about that FIP — a metric designed to only account for things within a pitcher’s immediate control, such as walks, strikeouts, and home runs. Hunter Gaddis’ 2021 numbers demonstrated the importance of normalizing home run rates to arrive at xFIP. Somewhat similar to strand rates being constant, home runs per fly ball ratio typically hovers around 11 percent with pitchers typically not having much input on its variability. Gaddis’ 2021 mark was 17 percent, which translated his 5.04 FIP to a 4.01 xFIP.
Tremendously unlucky was the overwhelming narrative of Hunter Gaddis’ 2021.
One may argue that an earned run average that hovers around 4 isn’t anything special and I’d be inclined to agree! However, the most compelling aspect of the Hunter Gaddis profile is the strikeout to walk rate. Over his minor league career across all levels, he has recorded 288 strikeouts and just 64 walks, or 4.5 strikeouts per every walk.
The most intriguing piece of the Gaddis strikeout to walk rate is that it has mostly maintained across every level. It earned him a start in Akron despite his poor surface statistics in 2021 in Lake County. Then, it maintained through early 2022, earning him a recent promotion to Columbus.
His 76-plus innings in Akron this year featured an ERA of 4.24, but the underlying metrics were much improved — 3.91 FIP and 3.58 xFIP. This paved the way for his debut in Columbus over the weekend, where he struck out six over four innings and did not allow a run.
Based on Hunter Gaddis’ promotion schedule, it is readily apparent that the Cleveland Guardians front office is not concerned with his earned run average output. They are digging beyond the surface and promoting based on pitcher inputs, such as strikeout ability and command.
As we look for Gaddis to use Columbus as a proving grounds for a big league emergence, we should keep in mind how the organization has demonstrated that Columbus is merely a pit stop for the arms they adore. In recent years, they have promoted Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale after only eight AAA starts. It took Eli Morgan just five starts in Columbus to earn his big league footing, while Zach Plesac rocketed to the big leagues after merely four Columbus starts. Expect to discover quickly just how much the Cleveland Guardians front office values Hunter Gaddis, and this author suspects that it is considerably more than prospect ranking lists currently indicate.