Guardians Vs Jackson Jobe - 5/23/25
How do the Guardians match up against tonight's Detroit Tigers starter?
Another battle in Detroit, maybe this time without a constant barrage of rain. Toeing the rubber for the Motor City Kitties is youngster Jackson Jobe. The Tigers’ 3rd overall pick in the 2021 draft is only 22 years of age and can light up the radar gun. A quick peek at his Baseball Savant page reveals, though, that he has yet to figure out how to harness that velocity. Jobe has only registered in the 27th percentile for strikeout percentage while carrying a walk rate of over five walks per nine innings.
Repertoire
Yeah, it seems as though all of these young guns coming up like to throw a lot of different pitches. It is likely that the Sweeper may be a pitch tracking classification issue, so we can drop that from Guardians’ hitters concerns. He will primarily attack hitters of each handedness with the 4-Seam and Slider combination. The Sinker gets dropped by Jobe against righties, but is used about a quarter of the time against lefties. He favors the Changeup against lefties. The Curve is only sprinkled in occasionally no matter hitter handedness.
Player Matchups
The outlook does not really sway towards favorable for the Guardians, at least in terms of performing above or below the baseline for each particular hitter. Bo Naylor and Kyle Manzardo are particular rough patches, merely because neither are particularly good against upper nineties righty 4-Seamers. Both are also susceptible to chasing Jobe’s changeups below the zone. Look for Jobe to pound Manzardo with Sliders and don’t be surprised if Naylor sees an increased dosage of Curveball.
Nolan Jones projects as the Guardians strongest option against Jobe by this metric. He is considerably proficient against all of his opponent’s potential pitch types. Daniel Schneemann needs to be in the lineup, both due to his success of late and ability to make damaging contact against similar 4-Seam Fastballs. This is also an opportunity to get Jhonkensy Noel a look against a righty, though it may be a cautionary tale if Jobe opts for Sinker often in that particular matchup.
Gage’s Preferred But Also Practical Lineup
Steven Kwan - LF
Daniel Schneemann - 2B
Jose Ramirez - 3B
Carlos Santana - 1B
Kyle Manzardo - DH
Nolan Jones - CF
Jhonkensy Noel - RF
Bo Naylor - C
Gabriel Arias - SS
Due to recent return from injured list and potential matchup outlook, a Lane Thomas rest day feels appropriate. Angel Martinez is far from a must sit, but Schneemann and Arias are both better plays against Jobe.
Over 1.5 Total Base Plays
Disclaimer - Definitely do not take this as gambling advice. This is for recreational purposes only. Taking gambling advice from me is not wise. Trust me.
(1) Nolan Jones - Obviously, this includes the caveat that he needs to be in the lineup for this to be a reasonable bet. His odds are loaded because he figures to bat near the bottom of the lineup, but his outlook against Jobe should he get a couple of plate appearances is favorable.
(2) Steven Kwan - He will bat leadoff, thus is likely to get an extra plate appearance compared to other options. Though Jobe is not a strong matchup for him, it is not weak either. Even money feels favorable.
(3) Daniel Schneemann - It is unclear where he will hit, but the matchup is solid and he is more than capable of reaching the over 1.5 with one swing.