Game 22 - 4/21/24 - Guardians Versus Ross Stripling
A second meeting with Ross Stripling. First time around back in March, the Guardians pushed five runs (four earned) across over five innings for Stripling. The outburst was supported by a pair of walks and seven hits, including a Jose Ramirez homer.
Repertoire
Stripling lives and dies by mixing well and avoiding free passes. No matter the handedness of the hitter, he is capable and willing to throw any one of his five offerings. The changeup is much more common against lefties, while the slider slots in that spot against righties. There is nothing exceptional about Stripling’s arsenal, but his 4-Seam, Changeup, and Slider are all mediocre pitches. Once he dwells too deep into knuckle curve and sinker usage, Stripling can find himself in trouble.
Matchup Grades
It is a great matchup opportunity for Estevan Florial. Though, it should be noted that Stripling induced a Florial ground out and strike out in their first matchups this season. The ground out was 94.3 miles per hour off the bat with an expected batting average of 0.430. The strike out was a foul tip on a competitive 4-Seam fastball.
The plan of attack against Florial was clear. After a hard-hit ground out on the 4-seam the first plate appearance, Stripling threw him three changeups and finished him off with the 4-Seam. Pitching backwards like this is a sound strategy for a hitter that you might expect to struggle with your changeup and slider. Despite the 0-for-2 showing last time, Florial should be expected to be in the lineup and be ready to hit Stripling this afternoon.
Another Guardians hitter in a good spot this afternoon is Gabriel Arias. He did not get the start last time around against Stripling and is really finding a groove in the batters box of late. Since last Saturday, Arias has eight batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 100 miles per hour while only starting seven games.
Stripling would do well to ditch the sinker altogether against Arias, else this string of hard-hit batted balls is liable to continue. When crafting their plan for Arias, it would make sense to lean on mostly curveballs and changeups, obviously needing the occasional 4-seam fastball sprinkled in.
It is a very good matchup for Jose Ramirez, but not just because of the homer that occurred in their first encounter. Ramirez has a significant sample size built of demonstrating a preference for 90 to 94 mile per hour 4-seam fastballs from righties like Stripling. He is also just extremely competent against any one of the Athletics’ righty’s options.
Ramirez is the type of bat that is unbothered by the more unpredictable pitch mix arms. He is elite in the avenues of barrel control, plate coverage, and zone discipline. The barrel control allows him to make slightly later swing decisions. The plate coverage reduces the frequency of donating called strikes, allowing him to spoil many junk offerings that could be plate appearance enders for most. The zone discipline leads to not helping the opposing pitcher out very often. When the value of your arsenal is more keeping a hitter guessing than it is stuff-related, Jose Ramirez is going to be a terror because… he does not guess.
Will Brennan and Bo Naylor will and should be in this afternoon’s Guardians lineup. Both have different ways of getting there, but can be effective against a Stripling type. Brennan has demonstrated an affinity for basically any kind of right-handed breaking ball and is competent enough against lower velocity right-handed fastballs. The younger Naylor salivates over lower velocity fastballs and changeups, but has struggled with the breaking balls.
David Fry and Brayan Rocchio are both good off-day candidates. As is Ramon Laureano.
Gage’s Lineup Pick
Kwan - LF
Gimenez - 2B
Ramirez - 3B
Naylor, J. - 1B
Florial - DH
Arias - SS
Naylor, B. - C
Brennan - RF
Freeman - CF
I care very little about the actual order, though I think it would be advantageous to get the best matchups for Stripling near the top of the lineup to potentially sneak an additional plate appearance against him. The players getting the reps are far more important than how the lineup is ordered.