Bold (?) Predictions for the 2024 Cleveland Guardians

“You wanna get nuts?? Let's get nuts!”

While other words such as “literally” and “ironic” might be more misused by the general public, “bold” continues to be bastardized at an alarming rate. This is especially the case in many corners of sports media, where articles titled “BOLD PREDICTIONS” featuring overwhelmingly tepid takes by Insiders with a capital I have become standard practice. If this article accomplishes anything at all (I wouldn’t bet on that happening, Shohei), the hope is that it at least can offer genuinely audacious predictions about the 2024 Cleveland Guardians. A couple of these prognostications coming to fruition would be welcome too, although that is highly unlikely if the current status of my March Madness bracket is any indication.

Tyler Freeman is an All Star in 2024

With Myles Straw being placed on waivers and Brayan Rocchio announced as the primary shortstop to start the season, center field ostensibly belongs to Tyler Freeman on a regular basis for the immediate future. Freeman not only had a stellar showing at the plate this spring, but he “has looked great in center field” according to new Guardians skipper, Stephen Vogt. After a 2023 big league campaign that consisted of sporadic plate appearances, Freeman spent time this offseason with Guardians outfield coach, JT Maguire. The work appears to have paid off, as Freeman has earned an opportunity to take over in center field instead of occupying a nebulous role as a bench bat thanks to an impressive defensive display out there coupled with strong offensive numbers this spring.

While he won’t be participating in the Home Run Derby there, Tyler Freeman will be in Arlington in mid-July as an All-Star representing the Guardians. Freeman has improved his contact authority in recent years, which helped lead him to a 143 wRC+ in 116 plate appearances last season in Columbus. Despite an underwhelming wRC+ of 83 in 2023 in 168 major league plate appearances, his xWOBA was 25 points higher than his actual wOBA with the Guardians last season. Freeman also posted a wRC+ of 111 over 72 plate appearances in the first half of the major league season in 2023, albeit with a BABIP of .364. A former top 50 overall prospect entering his age 25 season, look for Tyler Freeman to have a wRC+ in the 130-135 range for the first half of 2024 that propels him to his first All-Star appearance.

Kyle Manzardo leads the Guardians in home runs

Yes, Kyle Manzardo isn’t even on the Opening Day roster. However, Manzardo will be sending fastballs over the plate along with hanging breaking balls into the blue seats in the right field deck at Progressive Field by the time the Cavs are battling the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. (Another bold prediction!) After the Guardians acquired Manzardo from Tampa Bay, he proceeded to downright mash in Columbus once he returned to action from a shoulder injury he suffered as a Durham Bull. Manzardo’s isolated power percentage in 92 plate appearances with the Clippers was a mammoth .333, and those plate appearances also included six home runs in 21 games. Manzardo then went on to hit six home runs in 22 games during his stint in the Arizona Fall League as a member of the Peoria Javelinas.

The primary concern for Manzardo has been his suboptimal production against southpaws, as his OPS against left-handed pitching across 131 plate appearances in 2023 at AAA was a meager .595. The Guardians will initially shield him early on against most left-handed starters, but he will be in the lineup every day by August after he proves to be league average offensively against southpaws. While doubt exists among some publications about Manzardo’s power ceiling, the 32 home runs he hits this season will silence the skeptics.

Shane Bieber will win his second American League Cy Young Award and remain on the Guardians roster for the entire season

This might actually qualify as two separate bold predictions since there is an expectation among a healthy amount in the fanbase and local media that Shane Bieber will inevitably be dealt at the trade deadline in late July. Fortunately, the Guardians will be leading the American League Central by then and Bieber will be dealing at the head of the rotation. Perhaps the only person on the planet that would prefer to turn the clock back to 2020, the common narrative is that Shane Bieber is no longer the dominant pitcher we saw then after his 2023 campaign resulted in his K% cratering to 20% after peaking at 41% in the truncated 2020 season. The central culprit for his decline is the diminished velocity on his four-seam fastball that averaged 91 mph the past two seasons after sitting at either 93 or 94 mph over his first four seasons. After an offseason ripe with rumors of Bieber being shipped off to another club for his final season before reaching free agency, there is now renewed hope that he can return to the elite level he pitched at a few years ago.

Bieber made the trek to the heralded Driveline Baseball facility in Scottsdale, Arizona, where he threw ten fastballs faster over 93 mph in his final session there. Bieber had only thrown eight fastballs over 93 mph throughout the 2023 season, so this development certainly turned heads in the baseball community. The uptick in velocity carried over down the road from the lab in Scottsdale to the ballpark in Goodyear, as Bieber has consistently hit 93 or 94 mph on the radar with his fastball throughout spring training. Over 17 innings this spring, Bieber’s K% landed at 31% and a FIP of 2.75. With the previous two American League Cy Young Award winners (Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander) starting the 2024 season on the Injured List with no set timetable for return along with ace pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Dylan Cease no longer in the American League, the time is now for Shane Bieber to claim his second AL Cy Young and position himself for a formidable payday after the season.

Multiple middle infield prospects will be traded for a starting pitcher on the Miami Marlins

The logjam in the middle infield of the upper minors in the Guardians system has been bemoaned quite a bit by Cleveland fans for a couple years now. The prevailing ask by the fanbase to the front office has been to tap into the surplus of middle infield prospects to address the woebegone outfield situation with the big league club. This is the year that Guardians brass finally pulls the trigger on a trade using their middle infield prospect capital in Columbus. However, the return of the trade will be a starting pitcher (specifically from the Miami Marlins) instead of the assumed outfielder. With Steven Kwan’s offensive production in 2024 resembling 2022 more so than 2023, Tyler Freeman being an All-Star in CF and Chase DeLauter launching his decade-long tenure as the Cleveland right fielder beginning in June, the Guardians outfield will have a vastly rosier outlook than the historically inept offensive output we saw last season.

While the starting rotation is presently a strength for this Guardians club, the organization is sorely lacking for depth in the upper minors and doesn’t feature too many prominent pitching prospects in the wake of another devastating setback for Daniel Espino. In Columbus, Joey Cantillo is an intriguing arm that seems destined to get the call up to Cleveland at some point in 2024. However, he has struggled with control throughout his minor league career to the tune of walking nearly five batters per nine innings since 2022. Meanwhile, Xavion Curry profiles ideally as a spot starter, while the rest of the current projected Clippers rotation features multiple recycled arms pushing 30 years old. With Shane Bieber pitching in his final season as a Guardian and the lack of an obvious replacement for him in the rotation going forward and injuries occurring to other pitchers in the rotation, acquiring a starting pitcher with multiple seasons of control will be the organization’s top priority at this year’s trade deadline.

The Marlins, who project to finish with less than 80 wins on the season and are so desperate at shortstop that they are penciling in a “literal” punch line in Tim Anderson at that position to start the season, make for an ideal trading partner with the Guardians. Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers are both talented southpaws with renowned command, who are each 26 years old and don’t reach free agency until after the 2026 season. If Brayan Rocchio is able to run with the starting shortstop gig and produce at a level high enough, top prospects in the system such as Juan Brito and/or Angel Martinez could find themselves heading to South Beach.

Franco Aleman will be the most efficient Guardians reliever in 2024

There are few things as volatile without having any real world consequences as a major league bullpen. The Guardians are already down one of their top relievers in recent years for all of 2024 with Trevor Stephan undergoing elbow surgery, while another crucial arm in the pen will start the season on the 15-day IL in Sam Hentges. However, the biggest concern for the entire pen might actually be Emmanuel Clase, who is still considered one of the game’s superior relievers. After an impeccable two seasons, Clase found himself blowing an alarming 12 saves despite also recording 44 saves in 2023.

An obvious source for the late-inning mishaps from last season would be the steep reduction in whiffs that his slider generated from 2022 to 2023. After producing a remarkable 43% whiff rate on his slider in 2022, Clase’s whiff rate on his slider fell to 31% in 2023 with the vertical movement on the pitch dropping from 4 inches vs the average in 2022 to only 1.5 vs the average in 2023. Batters were far less fooled by Clase’s two pitch arsenal last season, as his chase rate went from an incredible 46% in 2022 to 31% in 2023. With no indication that Clase will add a third pitch to the mix this season or use his four-seam fastball after only throwing it on five total pitches last season, we could very well see a similar level of performance in 2024 from how he fared on the mound in 2023.

The encouraging news is that The Aleman Cometh to Cleveland this summer. While Scott Barlow will prove to serve useful in high-leverage for the Guardians, Franco Aleman is the next premier reliever for Cleveland. Drafted in the same 2021 class as Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams, Aleman has been a revelation out of the pen so far in his minor league career. After being promoted to Akron midseason from Lake County last year, Aleman shifted to immortal mode and pitched 24 scoreless innings with a K/9 rate of over 14 and only walking five total batters. Standing at 6’6 and armed with a fastball in the upper 90s along with a devastating slider and a splitter in the works, Aleman will seize the role of the club’s most effective reliever in his age 24, rookie season.

Daniel Schneemann is the new October hero in Cleveland after he hits a game-winning home run to advance the Guardians to the ALCS, as Freeman/Schneemann 2024 becomes the most popular lawn sign in Northeast Ohio this autumn

Okay, now the edibles have officially kicked in.