5/2/23 - Game 31 - Guardians Versus Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti has three career starts. He has yet to pitch into a fifth inning at the major league level. He has allowed 13 earned runs across 10 2/3 innings pitched. He has walked a lot of hitters. The only thing Arrighetti has done well to this point is record strikeouts, with 15 of those. It will be important for the Guardians to remain patient and disciplined, attacking in the name of hard contact versus sheer contact.
Repertoire
With only 10 or so major league innings, his pitch mix from AAA is referenced. This gives a broader picture from a data perspective on what he is trying to accomplish with his pitch selection. Fastballs half the time is pretty standard. The cutter adds to the 4-seam to give Arrighetti a 60 to 65 percent fastball expectation. He will mix in the sweeper and cutter more to righties, while heavily leaning on curve and change against lefties.
The sweeper is quite clearly Arrighetti’s most effective offering, though it is only utilized around 20 percent of the time. The fastballs are hit hardest, which the Astros will surely be tweaking shape and mix to perform better but will also likely try to help him incorporate more breaking balls.
Matchup Grades
Any right-handed 4-seam fastball is going to be a boon to Estevan Florial. He should continue to be high up on this leaderboard any time we see a righty with heavy 4-seam usage. That is what Florial feasted on in Triple-A for the New York Yankees last season. The curve is in his wheelhouse, as well. Arrighetti will look to attack with sweepers and cutters. The harder moving breaking balls have visibly given him fits as a member of the Cleveland Guardians.
I would be in a hurry to bet on Josh Naylor making a sizeable impact against Arrighetti. He feasts on sweepers from the opposite side and is a top performer against cutters, too. While the Guardians mantra as a team tonight should be patience and discipline, Josh Naylor should make it his own mission to attack Arrighetti fastballs and sweeper early and often. Do not let him get to the curve and change combination that he loves, especially in deep counts.
Gabriel Arias continues to find his name on the strong side of matchups against righty 4-seam types rather than sinker types. This is the track record that Arias built in the 2023 season. He swats any righty fastball, but struggles with virtually anything offspeed or breaking. Based on what he has done at the big league level, Arias would be a great option to play today. But that might mean a day off for Brayan Rocchio, who seems to have been finding his stride of late. Tough decisions ahead for Stephen Vogt.
There are no matchups with Arrighetti that are worthy of “must sit” designations. Austin Hedges does not count here, that is the expectation for him. Even Ramon Laureano could make some sense to spell Tyler Freeman, considering it is a poor matchup for the latter and neutral for the former. Freeman might project a little bit better but not enough to escape the bounds of margin of error.
The red hot Will Brennan merits mention. The cutter and curve are Brennan’s attack points. He has been very good against righty fastballs with similar spin and velocity. Arrighetti will look to bury sweepers
Good rest day opportunities are easy to find if one looks hard enough. David Fry and Tyler Freeman should pull for their squad from the dugout, as rest and a good breather point given Arrighetti’s arsenal. Austin Hedges should go catch some relievers in the bullpen or something.
Gage’s Lineup Pick
Kwan - LF
Brennan - RF
Ramirez - 3B
Naylor, J. - 1B
Florial - DH
Gimenez - 2B
Naylor, B. - C
Arias - CF
Rocchio - SS