5/1/24 - Game 30 - Guardians Versus Justin Verlander
A familiar foe. An old foe. The allegedly ageless wonder that is Justin Verlander. There are some good Guardians matchups here, but do not fear — should the Guardians find a way to hit Justin Verlander tonight, he will likely accuse them of stealing signs or something. Remember that one from after one of his more putrid starts in Cleveland? Think of the healthy coat of irony that is weighted down by after his teammates (right, only them…) in later years.
Repertoire
Verlander is a respectable competitor because he does not try to do anything with smoke and mirrors. The pitch mix is relatively stable. Half fastball, half breaking balls whether slider or curve, and a couple changeups scattered aimlessly. The slider and curveball are nearly equally effective at mitigating opposing hitter contact quality and frequency. The slider is thrown a bit more to righties, but not by a landslide.
Matchup Grades
The Verlander 4-Seam
Half the time against Verlander, hitters will see his live 4-seam fastball. He works it well up in the zone, but the mistakes can drift towards inner half to left-handed batters. Jose Ramirez represents one of the better profiles to hit Verlander, especially on his fastball.
Against Ramirez, Verlander will be looking to elevate it more than the above home run pitch from last summer. That pitch also drifted in against Jose.
The Verlander Slider
Below, a young and svelte Jose Ramirez demonstrates he can hit the slider, too. He has seen Verlander quite a bit in his storied career and has produced a wOBA of 0.452 over 41 career plate appearances. The only names with at least 40 plate appearances and a higher wOBA against Justin Verlander are Jose Abreu (56, 0.493) and Salvador Perez (67, 0.456).
Ramirez arrives there with success on fastball and competence on slider and changeup. The curveball likely represents Verlander’s best chance at attacking Ramirez successfully.
The right-handed slider is a success opportunity for Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor. And Verlander leans on his quite frequently, at near a 23 percent clip against lefty hitters.
Kwan and Naylor will be expecting to see the slider down and in tight within the strike zone. As Verlander creeps up with it towards their mid-thighs, which he is prone to do based on the above frequency chart, it will enter mistake territory that either of these Guardians hitters will be well equipped to capitalize on.
The Verlander Curveball
Another Estevan Florial and Gabriel Arias spot this evening. Florial can attack the fastball, especially if Verlander drifts too far down in the zone with it. But he can also do severe damage on curves. The plan of attack for Verlander against Florial should be heavy slider and changeup usage. If he is going to show the fastball, he better get to the top of the zone with it, which he can do well. Florial’s swing speed matches the velocity perspective.
While Gabriel Arias struggles against righty curves, he is not incapable. He presents a matchup challenge and should be in tonight’s lineup despite the same side of platoon scenario.
It would appear to be a good night to give Bo Naylor a breather allowing him to play in the series finale tomorrow night. Although David Fry does not match up well overall against the Verlander pitch mix, it would be much better to get him in the box than Austin Hedges, predictably.
Gage’s Lineup Pick
Kwan - LF
Gimenez - 2B
Ramirez - 3B
Naylor, J - 1B
Florial - DH
Freeman - CF
Brennan - RF
Fry - C
Arias - SS