4/30/24 - Game 29 - Guardians Versus Hunter Brown
A top tier pitching prospect with velocity takes on the Guardians lineup. Which Guardians hitters present the toughest matchups for Hunter Brown?
On to Houston and Hunter Brown, a top tier pitching prospect with nearly 200 major league innings under his belt. The flashes of brilliance have been there, but Brown has yet to truly settle into his big league role. He has encountered some command problems and a lot of homers, though the strikeout potential has flashed.
Repertoire
Upper end velocity is the story with Brown. His 4-seam averages near 96 miles per hour. He throws a variety of pitches but primarily sticks with his 4-seam, knuckle curve, and cutter. The others are merely for show or to throw off the scent occasionally. Brown does not switch his arsenal up much pending handedness, only showing subtle differences to the less utilized offerings.
Matchup Grades
The only clear cut sit scenarios based on matchups are Tyler Freeman and David Fry. They both arrive there in similar manners. In their major and minor league experience since 2022, both hitters have struggled with upper end velocity 4-seam fastballs and curveballs from righties. There is a sizable sample established here, as well, so the sit recommendation is well supported.
Andres Gimenez is another negative, though only slightly. When hitters have more plate appearances established, the margins are not as big so a slight negative for Gimenez is still noteworthy. There is not a Brown offering that Gimenez is particularly strong against except for the slider/sweeper, which Brown essentially never shows to lefties.
The remainder of Guardians hitters experience neutral to favorable matchups against Hunter Brown. The most noteworthy might be Estevan Florial. Though he has not seen many upper end velocity 4-seam fastballs at the major league level, Florial has demolished ones with similar spin and velocity at the minor league level. He has also handled the slower breaking balls valiantly. This is the sort of matchup the Guardians can utilize to highlight whether Florial can carry over minor league success to the big league level. He is well-positioned based on available data.
Like Florial, Gabriel Arias has enjoyed upper echelon righty heat. The other pitches in Brown’s arsenal? Not so much. There is a more distinct avenue to attack Arias than with Florial. A steady diet of curves and cutters could give him fits.
As discussed with Andres Gimenez, when a hitter has a significant sample size built against all of the pitches, it is more difficult to establish extreme matchup grades as everything tends to balance out more. Jose Ramirez showing a positive grade, albeit slight, is extremely noteworthy. He can really dial it up against similar velocity cutters. Hunter Brown would be best served to keep that pitch in his back pocket and attack Jose with breaking and offspeed stuff, only showing the 4-seam fastball when necessary. Though, that is easier said than done. It should be expected to see Jose Ramirez get a cutter in the zone eventually and try to jump it.
A positive Steven Kwan scenario is worthy of mention. Kwan’s excellent barrel control and command of the strike zone puts him at an advantage against above average velocity. Brown cannot live too freely with cutters and 4-seam fastballs in the zone here, either.
Gage’s Lineup Pick
Kwan - LF
Arias - SS
Ramirez - 3B
Naylor, J. - 1B
Brennan - RF
Florial - DH
Gimenez - 2B
Naylor, B. - C
Laureano - CF