4/27/24 - Game 27 - Guardians Versus Charlie Morton
Tonight’s Atlanta Braves starter, Charlie Morton, was a junior in high school when Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio was born. He made his major league debut a whole four years before Guardians manager Stephen Vogt even registered a major league game. Age is just a number.
Repertoire
Curveball usage percentage is just a number, too. For the ageless wonder that is Charlie Morton, it happens to be a very high number. Over the past few years, there is not a starting pitcher in baseball that has thrown a higher percentage of curveballs. And Morton utilizes the hook as a dual weapon in that he can get you to chase it out of the zone swinging or freeze you in your tracks with it for a called third strike. It is near the top of leaderboards for effectiveness, as well, no matter how you quantify or analyze it.
The rest of the Morton repertoire? Ranging from pedestrian (changeup) to hittable (4-seam) to atrocity (sinker, cutter). The sinker and cutter are hit hard enough that they should come with a warning to Braves fans to look away prior to their usage.
You solve Morton’s curveball — good luck — and you can tally runs on the board in a hurry, as the Marlins and Mets each did a couple of weeks ago.
Matchup Grades
No current Guardians have recorded an extra base hit against Morton, but it is primarily due to lack of sample size. Only Jose Ramirez (12), Ramon Laureano (8), and Austin Hedges (3) have registered plate appearances against him.
And we should give Jose Ramirez some credit for what he did to a Morton sinker in 2017, even if it wound up in George Springer’s glove in a sensational manner.
While Ramirez is a net neutral overall, it is a great opportunity for him to jump on some fastballs he loves. Sinkers and 4-Seams similar to Morton’s are Ramirez’s bread and butter, and consist of 40 percent of Morton’s offerings against righties. The heavy curve usage and Ramirez performance against are dragging the Guardians third baseman down a bit here, so if he can avoid chasing and getting himself out on that pitch he is well equipped to do damage.
Neutral matchups are boring, though. Estevan Florial should be written in pen in the lineup card this evening against Morton and tomorrow afternoon against Bryce Elder. On the Morton front, Florial is the Guardians best right-handed curveball hitter with a considerable sample built across his major and minor league time. Morton can attack Florial with changeup and cutter, but that is eliminating fastballs that Florial can do heavy damage to, as well. And focusing solely on changeup and cutter would rid Morton of 85 percent of his pitch mix.
Will Brennan is the second Guardian in line behind Florial with regard to punishing righty curves. Brennan is pretty darn good against the Morton fastball dishes, as well.
While not Morton exactly, Wheeler’s curve is comparable to Morton’s from a speed and movement standpoint. This is a good video in that it demonstrates how well Will Brennan can stay back on and put a good swing on the hook that is so prominently featured by Morton. An offshoot hypothesis would be that Brennan is adept at recognizing curve spin earlier than some of his peers. His struggles seem to be more centralized on upper end velocity up in the zone, and how changeups play off the fastball.
Gabriel Arias, again against a righty, registers highly. Fastballs are a major green light for him. The curve could give him fits. Unless he can exercise some plate discipline against the loopy curve of Morton, it will be difficult for Arias to contribute. He needs to turn over counts and get himself to those 4-seams, sinkers, and cutters that he has been so efficient at capitalizing on.
Ramirez, Brennan, and Florial are the top picks to do damage. Throw Arias in there, too. On the other side of that coin sit Ramon Laureano and David Fry. Neither should find their name on the lineup card this evening. While Laureano is good against the Morton fastballs, he is utterly hapless against the Morton hook that is featured so prominently. Three of Laureano’s eight plate appearances against Morton ended on curveball strikeouts, all in the same game back in 2019.
While it is tough to make extreme judgments based on limited plate appearances against Morton (8) or a rough game against him (clips above), the sheer nature of these demolitions by Morton, in addition to the matchup evidence above, is enough to give him the night off. Three plate appearances shredded by the same pitch in a similar location. And… the Guardians have much more deserving playing time candidates in tonight’s matchup, anyway.
It is a much more promising outlook for Guardians hitters tonight against Morton than last night against Chris Sale. And an even better matchup for Guardians hitters coming tomorrow afternoon against Bryce Elder.