4/26/24 - Game 26 - Guardians Versus Chris Sale
The almighty Atlanta Braves are hosting the Cleveland Guardians. How do the Guardians match up against an old divisional foe?
Chris Sale is a name that Cleveland baseball fans have become mighty familiar with over the years. There were a couple fun affairs where Cleveland offenses of yesteryear tagged him pretty good at Progressive Field. This, though, is a new look Chris Sale. Well, an older Chris Sale. But still an effective Chris Sale.
Repertoire
As has been the case for the entirety of his career, the Guardians will see mostly 4-seam fastballs and loopy sliders from Chris Sale. He will mix in the changeup against righties and the sinker against lefties. With lefties in the box, Sale also cranks up the slider usage and dares them to hit it.
Matchup Grades
A lefty with a great slider and fastball represents a bit of a bleak outlook for this version of the Cleveland Guardians. The only hitter that finds himself in an extreme positive position is David Fry. Even though Sale has an avenue to attack Fry with the slider, the other offerings are in Fry’s wheelhouse. Sale would be best suited to dispose of his changeup in these at-bats and attack Fry with mostly sliders and occasional 4-seam fastballs.
Next in line? Surprisingly Bo Naylor. It does not bode well that the two best matchups for the Guardians against Chris Sale are from the catcher position, but it is baseball and as the saying goes… you can’t predict ball. Bo Naylor does not handle lefty breaking or offspeed stuff well, but is very good against similar 4-seams and sinkers to that of Sale. The key for Naylor will be to be aggressive with fastballs in the zone early in counts because digging out of a count deficit will be especially difficult for him in this matchup.
Although Jose Ramirez grades out slightly negatively relative to his norm, he is still capable against Chris Sale. And Jose certainly has encountered Sale much more than any of his young teammates. He is very sound but not special against every one of Sale’s offerings. He tends to favor lefty sinkers compared to 4-seams and it should be expected that Sale will leave the sinker alone entirely against Jose.
While there are a handful of negative matchup scenarios, the most tilted one is Gabriel Arias. Remember, this is only based on data at the big league level for Arias and last season he seemed to forget how to hit a left-hander. Even with a decent sample size established, Arias has only managed an xwOBA of 0.123 against lefty sliders, which is the stuff of Myles Straw’s worst nightmares. Sit Arias.
A funny thing about Ramon Laureano is that despite his heavy preference for left-handed pitching in general, he struggles a bit against the 4-seam fastball. He is more than equipped, though, against any of Sale’s other offerings and is a must play tonight. This game is why you carry Ramon Laureano, even if the matchup is not perfect.
Along with Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges and Will Brennan fall in the “sit” category. Tyler Freeman is not in the best matchup for himself but still grades out in the “firm play” category. You might even try to sneak Estevan Florial in the lineup, who is surprisingly good against the lefty 4-Seam. But this gets fuzzy with playing David Fry and Bo Naylor.
Gage’s Lineup Pick vs Sale
Kwan - LF
Fry - DH
Ramirez - 3B
Naylor, J. - 1B
Freeman - CF
Naylor, B. - C
Laureano - RF
Gimenez - 2B
Rocchio - SS