4/24/24 - Game 24 - Guardians Versus Cooper Criswell (Again)
Last week, the Red Sox employed an opener to get to Cooper Criswell as the bulk arm. He pitched to twelve hitters while allowing a walk and three hits without recording a strikeout, though a pair of Guardians also reached on errors by the Red Sox infield. It was those errors that opened the floodgates for the Guardians offense.
Tonight, it appears that Boston will let Criswell work in a more traditional starting pitcher sense. He will try to be a stopper for a Red Sox club that has lost four of their first five against the Guardians.
Repertoire
Yep, an 88.7 mile per hour sinker. Interestingly enough, it grades out really well from a Stuff+ perspective, which is a proprietary metric from Eno Sarris. The grade is 120, which amounts to 20 percent better than the league average sinker. It is not, however, fooling Major League hitters yet. The 0.413 wOBA against suggests that over the 62 plate appearances it has been supremely hittable. Criswell pitches have not fared well in big league action, except for his seldom used slider which only has 9 plate appearances against. This slider seems to have been dropped from Criswell’s repertoire in 2024. The changeup, by the numbers, has performed the best, but is only utilized at about a 15 percent rate.
Matchup Grades
There was a slight alteration to similar fastball expectations in attempt to grab a bigger sample size. Other slight movement is due to refining done on the pitch mix expectations given the absent slider.
This is why Andres Gimenez shows an improved projection compared to last week. The extreme low velocity righty sinker is one of the only fastballs that Gimenez has punished throughout his career. Criswell has little in his arsenal to defend against Gimenez, which is why the Guardians second baseman grades out as the second best prospective hitter on the team tonight. In his lone plate appearance against Criswell last week, Gimenez came away with a sharp line drive single.
Criswell only managed one swing and miss on 22 swings last outing against the Guardians. That was with the sweeper, which happens to be the pitch that propels Ramon Laureano and Tyler Freeman into negative grade territory. Though, Freeman is still a decent option to play compared to a host of other Guardians hitters. Ramon Laureano is firmly in must sit territory, though that would appear doubtful with him having last night off against Tanner Houck.
Will Brennan is swinging it well and finds himself in one of the more favorable matchups imaginable. He is a sneaky good candidate for another extra base hit tonight given his pattern of success against lower velocity right-handed sinkers and cutters. He has not performed to par on the sweepers and changeups, so those register as a good plan of attack for Criswell.
Righty or not, all David Fry has done is hit in 2024. He has earned more reps, undoubtedly. The right-handed reps should come against arms like Cooper Criswell. Both at the minor and major league level, Fry has equipped himself well against this type of sinker thrower. The changeup remains his achilles heel in this matchup.
It is also a must play night for Estevan Florial. Like Fry and Brennan, this type of sinker should lead to a Florial feast. The breaking and offspeed stuff has the potential to give him fits, but if he can find a way to lay off — which he is more capable of against the softer breaking stuff that Criswell should feature — he should get some sinkers to send soaring.
Gage’s Lineup Pick
Kwan - LF
Gimenez - 2B
Ramirez - 3B
Naylor, J. - DH
Brennan - CF
Fry - 1B
Naylor, B. - C
Florial - RF
Rocchio or Arias - SS
This seems a bit hopeful, as Stephen Vogt has not demonstrated a willingness to play Will Brennan or Estevan Florial in center. It is more likely that we see Tyler Freeman in center with one of David Fry or Estevan Florial sitting. This exercise was comprised of attempting to get Fry, Florial, and Brennan all into the same lineup without sacrificing any of the mainstay players.
Criswell should get torn to shreds by this iteration of the Guardians lineup. We will see how well his purported high value sinker in terms of stuff can play against a lineup that loves that style of sinker.