4/2/24 - Game 6 - Guardians Hitters Versus Luis Castillo Preview
Last night it was a young arm with promise. Tonight it's a legitimate ace. How do Guardians hitters match up?
After hitting the ball hard with limited results against Emerson Hancock, the Guardians get a date with a bona fide ace in Luis Castillo. The 31 year old right-hander had a bumpy first start of 2024, but is a lock to be a difficult matchup for any offense he encounters.
Repertoire
The most compelling component of sizing up any opposing arm is the identification of pitch mix process. Some arms throw seven pitches but are more predictable with a pair of them being extremely high usage, while others can be more standard with a four pitch arrangement but spread more evenly. These deltas in pitch mix and quantity create a pitcher’s fingerprint.
Castillo’s fingerprint is standard from a number of pitches standpoint, but he does extremely well to mix each one into the equation in near equal doses. Keeping the hitter second-guessing while carrying 97 miles per hour of average fastball velocity on both a 4-seam and sinker is a tough counter for any big league bat.
The sinker is wielded much more often against righties, contributing to a repertoire that consists mostly of his two fastballs and slider when a same side hitter steps up to the plate. Against lefties, Castillo is more prone to dropping the sinker and slider in usage, leaning on only his 4-seam and changeup near 75 percent of the time.
Matchup Grades
It is important to read these matchup grades for what they are — how each hitter weighs against the individual pitches offered in terms of velocity, spin rate, and type relative to that particular hitter’s major league performance. For example, you can see that Jose Ramirez projects at 0.338 xwOBA against Castillo’s pitch mix, which actually falls below his mark of 0.350 since 2021. That amounts to a neutral grade, but Steven Kwan with a very similar projection (0.342) is a grade of “++” because his baseline xwOBA is 0.315.
In order to make playing time decisions, this grade is not as necessary as just looking at the raw projected output for each hitter against one another, as seen below.
This is just each player’s projected xwOBA against similar pitch types and mixes. If we were to use this as gospel, we would suggest that it is not an ideal matchup to utilize Estevan Florial, Austin Hedges, or Brayan Rocchio.
Based on the matchup grades, it is a night to be bullish on Josh Naylor. His bat control and power matches up well with a high velocity power arm. Castillo’s best bet in neutralizing the elder Naylor will be heavy changeup usage due to his capability against each of the other offerings. It will be something to watch for during Naylor’s plate appearances in tonight’s game.
Perhaps surprisingly, at least to this author, is that Gabriel Arias has demonstrated real proficiency against similar 4-seam offerings, albeit in a limited sample size. His longer, yet powerful, swing would figure to be a poor match for the upper radar readings. Castillo should look to attack Arias with a series of sinkers and sliders to best avoid damage.
The lone remaining firmly positive matchup for the Guardians in their bout with Castillo is Steven Kwan. This adds up in theory because Kwan is so quick and decisive to the ball with his swing. Kwan will look to use Castillo’s power to aid his path to rare extra base hit air.
Although Brayan Rocchio has swung the bat well to open the year, Castillo might be a good matchup to give him a breather given his small sample struggles with upper velocity as a left-handed hitter.
Matchup of the Day Versus Luis Castillo: Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias
Sit of the Day: Brayan Rocchio
Unexpected Positive Matchup: Gabriel Arias