4/1/24 - Game 5 - Guardians Hitters Versus Emerson Hancock Preview
How do Guardians hitters fare against pitches similar to that of Emerson Hancock's repertoire?
The Guardians next affair will be going toe-to-toe against an intriguing prospect named Emerson Hancock. Another late game, this time in Seattle, on a west coast swing to open the 2024 season. The tough thing to evaluate is when the sample windows narrow, and the matchups tonight will be difficult to evaluate with Hancock only making three starts in the majors last year. Although it is only three starts of data, the main points we look for to evaluate a matchup are already starting to bleed through — pitch mix, velocity, and spin rate.
Repertoire
Only 194 pitches, but we can start to see that the Hancock toolkit is a pretty standard righty starter mix. His fastball is a little below average in terms of velocity, but is of the high spin variety. The slider is the opposite, with lower spin and higher velocity. Hancock tends to save the sinkers for his right-handed hitting opponents as that is a tough pitch for righties to throw effectively against the strong platoon side because its movement can align with the bat path.
Matchups
An overwhelming display of positive matchups compared to the norm for Guardians hitters. Essentially, this Guardians offense has been superb against low velocity right-handers with heavy 4-seam usage throughout their career, which tracks against anecdotal recollections for this author.
It would appear to be an obvious off day situation for David Fry based on his expected output being nearly 30 percent lower than his career average. Obviously, he could still hit if given the opportunity — which he may play after an off day yesterday — but it just would be something to avoid banking on based on the data.
Today’s top plays relative to their Major League career baseline would be Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias, which is fascinating because they are righties squaring off against a right-handed arm. This is primarily due to each of them teeing off on similar velocity and spin righty 4-seams and sinkers.
The next tier of strong matchups in the Guardians favor includes Will Brennan, Steven Kwan, Ramon Laureano, and Brayan Rocchio. Of these, Brennan and Kwan are in very good output company, nearing the output expectation level of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Their matchup grades out better due to lower baseline expectations.
For as much green as you see on the card, it is important to remember that Emerson Hancock has very little data and is a highly regarded prospect making his season debut. He could very well throw a wrench into our velocity, spin, and usage expectations and it would not be all that surprising with only a 200 or so pitch sample to use as a functional basis for attempting to evaluate the matchup.
Matchup of Day vs Emerson Hancock: Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias
Sit of the Day: David Fry
Unexpected Positive Matchup: Ramon Laureano
Unexpected Negative Matchup: None